Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science
Last week's budget presented by the Chancellor of the Exchequer did not mention the science budget allocations, but among the figures published by the government was an admission that research funding will be cut over the next few years by a further £157 million in real terms than was announced as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) last October.
The reason for this was the adjustments, published by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR), to the forecasts for inflation in 2011 and 2012 compared with estimates last November. The GDP deflator at market prices, used as the measure of inflation that applies research spending, was revised up from 2.6 to 3.0 per cent for 2011, and up to 2.4 from 2.1 per cent for 2012 (see pages 79 and 80 here).
The effect of higher estimates of inflation is to reduce the real terms value of future spending commitments. Overall the annual science budget is due to be lower in cash terms by about 5.5 per cent in 2014-15 compared with 2010-11. When the OBR's inflation estimates in November 2010 are factored in, the annual science budget would be 14.4 per cent less in real terms in 2014-15 compared with 2010-11.
Overall the CSR announcement added up to an accumulated expenditure through the science budget of £20.921 billion during the four years up to and including 2014-15. But if the science budget was increased over this period in line with the inflation estimates published last November by the OBR, total spending would be £23.724 billion.
Now with the revised inflation figures, total expenditure over the four years would need to be £23.881 billion. In essence, total real terms spending on the science budget over the CSR period has been reduced by about £157 million as a result of the increases in inflation estimates between last November and last week. To put this into context, this sum is equivalent to more than a quarter of the £616 million that has been allocated as resource funding for the Economic and Social Research Council over the CSR period.
UK researchers may be looking longingly across the Atlantic to the US where the Obama administration is seeking an annual budget for the National Science Foundation of $7.8 billion in 2012, 13.0 per cent higher in cash terms than the 2010 figure. Contrast that with the UK science budget which will be 6.7 per cent lower in cash terms in 2012-13 compared with 2010-11.
The Republican Party is currently opposing the federal budget that has been proposed by the Obama administration, so the National Science Foundation may yet see its funding cut. But it is interesting to note that among the reasons given last month by President Obama's director of science and technology policy, John Holdren, for the proposed increase in investment in the National Science Foundation is "the time-proven truth that today's NSF grants are tomorrow's billion dollar, job-creating companies"
Contrast that with the UK government's plans for ensuring future economic growth by reducing investments in university research.
 |  |